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ANALYSIS | During the Umno general assembly over the past weekend, there were two main schools of thought. One was that the party could no longer play second fiddle to Bersatu and must withdraw from the Perikatan Nasional (PN) government.
The other was that divorcing Bersatu would only spell doom for Umno in the 15th general election (GE15).
One proponent of the second scenario was Umno supreme council member Zahidi Zainul Abidin who said the party must go into the elections with Bersatu and PAS. He believed Umno will come out on top and be in a dominant position when the next government is formed.
Conversely, he said if Umno were to go solo in the election, the party might be left on the opposition bench with no allies.
However, several analysts told Malaysiakini that this description by Zahidi misses the point - if Umno went it alone, there would be room for the party to form a coalition with new or old partners after the election.
Ilham Centre executive director Hisomuddin Bakar said Umno on its own appeared confident that it could retain all 55 seats it won in GE14, including those "stolen" by MPs who defected to Bersatu.
Additionally, he said Umno could be eyeing at least 16 other Malay-majority seats for an overall target of at least 70 MPs in Parliament. The seats were said to be from those currently held by PAS, Bersatu, or Pakatan Harapan components PKR and Amanah.
“If PAS chose to be with Bersatu, Umno could retake several seats where they fell in three-cornered fights with PAS, for example in Terengganu, Kedah, and Kelantan.
“And there are the 13 seats won by Bersatu. Umno is very confident it could reclaim its traditional seats, including Langkawi. Aside from Jerlun and Pagoh, the remaining seats they appear to be very confident,” he said.
As for Malay-majority seats held by Harapan parties, Hisomuddin identified Kuala Selangor and Kulim Bandar Baru as being possible targets for Umno, with a record of “swing results” between BN and Harapan candidates across several general elections.Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi
Harapan defeated Umno candidates in the two seats in GE14, while Umno, in GE13, defeated then Pakatan Rakyat candidates who won in GE12.
“The target of 70 seats is significant for Umno to propel them as the single largest party in Parliament.
“After that, they will open the doors for discussion with other winning parties, to form a government on Umno’s terms,” said Hisomuddin.
Unlike past general elections, he said there could be more uncertainties surrounding the outcome of GE15, with no formal coalition set prior to the polling day.
“This situation will give rise to uncertainties because its outcome lies more in which party has the strength to win their seats, and also involve post-election discussions,” he said, adding that negotiations could even involve rival parties.