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KUALA LUMPUR: Following the harrowing two years brought upon by the Covid-19 pandemic, all eyes are on 2022 for Malaysia to kickstart a much needed economic recovery.

While the general consensus is for the economy to grow more than 5% next year, economists and industry experts have, however, cautioned that the recovery path will not be without challenges.

According to RHB Investment Bank Bhd regional equity research head Alexander Chia, the recovery path will continue to unfold going into 2022, as a new growth cycle emerges.

“Covid-19 will remain a major source of volatility for global markets. This is as investors grapple with domestic policy and regulatory risks, the perilous state of public finances, an evolving political backdrop and broader macro risks stemming from inflation, the sustainability of the global recovery and state of China’s economy,” he said in a market strategy note yesterday.

Chia forecast Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) to grow more than 5.5% in 2022, helped by the low-base effect, an efficient immunisation programme, the withdrawal of lockdown restrictions, high pent-up demand and gradual reopening of international borders.

“While China risks remain, the United States will anchor global growth, driven by robust consumer spending, a new inventory cycle and large infrastructure spending package.”

Malaysia University of Science and Technology professor Geoffrey Williams forecast three possible scenarios for Malaysia in 2022.

“One scenario is for a strong rebound, as the Malaysian and global economies open up, pent-up consumption is spent and trade flows begin to grow.

“In this case, we would have a growth of around 6% and 7% next year. I think this is too optimistic and many forecasts are already being revised downwards. I put only a 10% chance of a strong rebound like this,” he told StarBiz.

Williams added that the second potential scenario would be if the Omicron variant has a huge, adverse impact on trade flows and international travel.

“This could cause a further contraction and recession as in the last two years. I think the danger is more from a policy overreaction than from Omicron itself, but this scenario has a 30% chance of unfolding.”

The final scenario is if the impact of the Omicron variant is less severe and results in a slower economic recovery.

“There has been a lot of structural damage to the economy with many firms closing. Malaysians have less pent-up consumption because of job losses and Employees’ Provident Fund withdrawals.


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