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IF you ask me whether Pakatan Harapan (PH) will win the Malacca elections, my immediate response would be “I don’t know.” A more nuanced response would be “depends on voter turnout.” It is down to the wire.

My team and I have been in Malacca for most parts of the week, and will continue to be this week until polling day on Saturday. It has been a very difficult campaign as candidates and campaigners are barred from physical campaigning.

It is also difficult for Umno, a party that used to claim to have 3.5 million members, which is nearly 20% of Malaysia’s adult population. One would think that such a number would translate into a huge number of votes.

However, many adults, including Umno supporters, are not registered as voters and even if they were, they had not been voting. That is going to change with Undi18 and automatic registration of voters, which hopefully will become a reality by March.

In the meantime, the Sarawak government is rushing for a year-end December state elections because it doesn’t want to deal with the uncertainty new voters would bring.

The ancien regime, whether in the peninsula or in Sarawak, prefers to have only its hardcore supporters and party members as voters. Essentially, Umno and its Sarawak coalition partner, Gabungan Parti Sarawak, thrive on suppressing voter registration and voter turnout.

Hence, before Undi18 and automatic registration of voters are implemented, we will have to contend with this Malacca elections.

Most seats have fewer than 20,000 voters each and feedback from most indicate voter turnout is expected to be low, in part because of disappointment with politics in general, with Perikatan Nasional (PN), Barisan Nasional (BN) and PH and fear of new Covid-19 wave.

Tight races 

I don’t think anyone could easily predict the outcome of these elections as the result hinges very much on voter turnout. The more voters – young and first-timers, outstation Malays, and non-Malays – come out to vote, the less weightage the Umno vote bank would have.

In the 2018 general election, PH won on the back of huge turnout from among young voters, Malay outstation voters and non-Malay voters whereas Umno depended on its older, hardcore voters who mostly resided in Malacca.

In that GE14, Umno won six marginal seats with fewer than 1,000 votes each, or a total of 3,080 votes. In other words, 3,080 fewer votes for Umno in the right place would cause the party to win only seven seats in GE14 instead of the 13 seats it had.

Umno seats:

Merlimau (130 majority, 5,290/13,810 total)Asahan (275 majority, 5,942/16,011 total)Rim (536 majority, 5,301/13,689 total)Lendu (627 majority, 4,016/10,350 total)Taboh Naning (740 majority, 3,329/8,743 total)Pantai Kundor (772 majority, 5,773/15,686 total)

PH also won three seats with fewer than 1,000 votes:

Gadek (DAP – 307 majority, 4,392/12,922 total)Durian Tunggal (Amanah – 763 majority, 5,213/13,076 total)Klebang (PKR – 789 majority, 7,648/20,166 total)


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