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Safety net: A money changer sells US dollar bills at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Turkey. Currency traders are turning to traditional haven currency in response to stagflation worries. — Reuters

STAGFLATION has of late become a hot topic of discussion among investors, particularly in advanced economies.

With inflation pushing prices up, while economic growth is slowing down, the risk of stagflation has become a legitimate concern among investors.

While some financial experts continue to argue that elevated inflation is merely transitory, there are some quarters who thinks inflation will likely stay high for longer, into next year, or even 2023.

Stagflation is a combination of persistently high inflation and stagnation in the economy; and this is typically accompanied by high levels of unemployment.

If severe, it can be damaging to both the economy and financial markets, as seen in the 1970s.

Bank of America Corp strategist Claudio Piron recently warned against dismissing the risk of inflation.

Speaking in a TV interview, he said investors would be at their own peril to underplay the stagflation risk.

“The inflation story’s taking hold,” Piron said, pointing to soaring energy prices.

He added that the rising inflationary pressure is not necessarily all due to demand, but it is also largely due to disruption to production and supply chains, which is “negative for growth”.

Nouriel Roubini, the economist famed for predicting the 2007/09 Global Financial Crisis and Credit Crunch, has also been warning about the risk of stagflation for the past few months.

He says inflation is rising in the United States and many advanced economies, and growth is slowing sharply, despite massive monetary, credit, and fiscal stimulus.

“The current mix of persistently loose monetary, credit, and fiscal policies will excessively stimulate aggregate demand and lead to inflationary overheating.

“Compounding the problem, medium-term negative supply shocks will reduce potential growth and increase production costs.

Combined, these demand and supply dynamics could lead to 1970s-style stagflation (rising inflation amid a recession) and eventually even to a severe debt crisis,” Roubini wrote in a recent commentary.

Market impact

According to a recent Deutsche Bank survey, 74% of more than 600 respondents regard rising inflation and bond yields as the biggest threat to market stability.

There is “a fairly strong consensus” that some kind of stagflation is more likely than not, the survey notes, adding that 63% of respondents think there will be another 5% to 10% pullback in the S&P 500 while another 8% feared a steeper decline.

Investment bankers Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, however, continue to expect the current pace of inflation is transitory.


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