The coming days are critical in Victoria and NSW as we anxiously watch to see if the two outbreaks can be brought under control.(ABC News: Daniel Fermer)ShareFacebookTwitterArticle share optionsShare this onFacebookTwitterLinkedInSend this byEmailMessengerCopy linkWhatsAppPrint contentPrint with images and other mediaPrint text onlyPrintCancelRound two of Australia's coronavirus fight is far trickier than round one.The coming days are critical in Victoria and NSW as we anxiously watch to see if the two outbreaks, one widespread and one burgeoning, can be brought under control.The country's overall success in flattening the curve the first time around has left us with a complicated web of border closures and restrictions that may prove tricky to untangle.The biggest states have accepted they are unlikely to ever eliminate the virus locally, but smaller states are determined to keep the virus out entirely.Coronavirus latest: Follow all the latest information in our COVID-19 live blogIn terms of keeping state borders open, we're left in an impossible position.Of course, travelling between states will be less of an issue if the current outbreaks come under control.The situation today looks very different to March and April.This weekend is crucialIn Victoria, the coming days should bring a clearer idea of whether the Melbourne outbreak is being contained or if the virus is still snaking its way through the community.For now at least, with both Thursday and Friday bringing news of new daily records in the state, the curve is still trending up.Because of the natural variation in the incubation period for different carriers of the virus, it is impossible to identify a precise date from which the lockdown's effect can be seen in the case data.But it is fair to assume we are now seeing infections that were acquired both pre- and post-lockdown.Victoria's coronavirus surge could easily get away from us. This is the action we need nowWe've had success with containing the virus so far, but at the moment we are at edge of a precipice.Read more"We have an expectation that the things we have put in place two weeks earlier should show up in the numbers," Victoria's Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton said yesterday."At the end of this week, we are getting very close to that."That means if the stay at home orders are working, we should be starting to see it very soon.If we don't see any improvement, we have a problem. While all states and territories have agreed on the same strategy going forward, the actions of some state leaders suggest they may be interpreting it differently.(AAP/James Ross)All of Melbourne went back to stage three restrictions just over a week ago, but a number of postcodes have been there for more than two weeks.But despite the longer lockdowns, we're yet to see a turnaround.The Victorian health department doesn't provide case data for individual postcodes, but in the vast majority of local government areas that overlap with the locked down postcodes, daily infection counts have not started trending down."We have seen some postcodes within the initial areas that have plateaued to some degree, but there are other postcodes within that same local government area that continue to take off," Professor Sutton said.Sydney's problem is differentWhile they're both rooted in local transmission, most likely from the same initial source, Sydney's outbreak does have some marked differences to Melbourne.This one appears to have been caught faster.So far, only one cluster has been identified, with NSW Health moving quickly to track and trace it.But several third-generation cases have already been identified, in close contacts of people that visited the Crossroads Hotel. Several third-generation cases have already been identified, in close contacts of close contacts of people that visited the Crossroads Hotel.(AAP: Joel Carrett)There are secondary sites of infection as well, with three cases identified as being most likely acquired at the Planet Fitness Gym in Casula.And the locations of concern continue to grow.Late yesterday NSW Health also linked a third case to the Thai Rock restaurant in Stockland Mall Wetherill Park, including a staff member, and directed anyone who had visited on July 9, 10, 11, 12 or 14 to get tested and self-isolate for 14 days.And now, a handful of cases in the region have been found without an apparent link to the cluster, a troubling sign that the virus could be spreading undetected,
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